The consequences of a possible breakdown in Morocco-Spain relations as seen by Jawad Kerdoudi
Morocco will if necessary go as far as the severing of diplomatic relations if the head of the Polisario were to be exfiltrated from Spain. Jawad Kerdoudi, president of the Moroccan Institute of International Relations (IMRI) explains the socio-economic repercussions of a possible rupture.
> What the severance of diplomatic relations means ...
"First of all, it is necessary to define the real meaning of a rupture of diplomatic relations which is the final stage of a disagreement, most often political, between two countries.
“Indeed, in diplomatic matters, this is the last decision that comes after a first stage of protests and then a recall of his ambassador for consultation with his government.
“In short, the breakdown of diplomatic relations means the absence of official political contacts between two countries which ignore each other and no longer speak to each other.
> No immediate economic impact
"In the event that Morocco decides to sever its diplomatic relations with its Iberian neighbor, there should be, initially, no impact on the level of economic exchanges and the existing contracts which bind Moroccan businessmen and Spaniards will continue normally.
“Indeed, the export and import of goods and services are governed by contracts which, as a rule, do not contain any sunset clause in the event of the breakdown of diplomatic relations.
> Nationalist entrepreneurs risk having to pay heavy compensation
"Concretely, a Moroccan factory located in the free zone of Tangier which subcontracts for the Spanish textile manufacturer Zara will continue to work normally under penalty of being sued in civil proceedings by its principal for breach of its contractual production obligations.
“Especially since in all international exchange contracts, there is an arbitration clause which stipulates that in the event of a dispute, it will not be the Moroccan or Spanish justice that will apply but a court of international arbitration.
“All this to say that if a Moroccan or Spanish exporter refuses to supply his client to show nationalism, there will be legal consequences with significant financial compensation.
"We must therefore differentiate between the volume of contracts that were concluded before the breakdown of diplomatic relations and those that were pending to be signed or scheduled for a specific date.
> Ultimately, there will no longer be any new Spanish investors in Morocco
"So, while existing contracts will not be impacted immediately, the flow of new contracts and scheduled investments will certainly slow or even stop quite quickly.
"Logically, in view of the risk of instability induced by the breakdown of diplomatic relations, Moroccan or Spanish businessmen who are always cautious before settling in a foreign country will prefer to postpone their investments in the other country. .
> No blockade or embargo between the two countries
“That said, if Morocco breaks diplomatic relations with Spain, it is unthinkable that it will implement an economic and trade blockade with its neighbor as the United States did with Cuba or Iran.
"This is all the less conceivable as such an embargo policy would run counter to its interests.
"In my opinion, our government will let economic exchanges run but the dynamic of new investments will dry up without taking into account the total stoppage of bilateral political relations", warns Kerdoudi, adding that there will be no more Spanish delegations in Morocco. no fairs sponsored by the Iberian authorities until the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
> No impact on Moroccan and Spanish immigrant communities
Regarding a possible social impact on Moroccan communities in Spain (900,000 people) or Spanish in Morocco (10,000), our interlocutor is convinced that there should be none.
“Spain welcomes many Moroccans to its soil who pay their taxes and actively participate in its economy. This community should not be affected by the rupture.
"Ditto for the rule of law in Morocco where there is no risk of individual or group retaliatory measures. Thus, it is unthinkable that our country behaves like Algeria which had not hesitated to expel hundreds of thousands of Moroccans after the Green March ”, specifies the expert in international relations for whom these rogue state procedures have nothing to do with the two kingdoms.
> In the event of a break-up, there will be losers in both countries
"When asked who will have the most to lose from a possible rupture, the president of IMRI argues that there will be two losers because Spain is the leading European exporter but also the leading customer of Morocco", Kerdoudi believes, adding that there will also be a drop in cultural exchanges with the Cervantes centers which may close if their funding is no longer ensured by the diplomacy of Madrid.
> France and Great Britain rub their hands to replace Spain
Asked about the beneficiaries of the eventual end of Moroccan-Spanish relations, Kerdoudi believes that France and England will benefit most from a breakdown in political relations.
“Relegated for a few years to the second place of supplier-customer after Spain, France will do everything to regain the first place of the podium which it occupied for decades.
“Apart from France, Italy and Belgium will also try to take advantage of the situation to improve the flow of their trade with the kingdom, but it is certainly the former member of the European Union, Great Britain , which will position itself on the starting blocks ”, concludes the president of the IMRI who still hopes that the Iberian neighbor will not pass the point of no return by letting Brahim Ghali leave his territory without responding to the accusations of the Spanish justice .
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